Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili 3: Staff Picks

Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet for a third time in the UFC 333 co-main event on Saturday, and all five Bloody Elbow staff members picked Yan to win. Four expect a decision, while one predicts a knockout.

The bantamweights are tied at one win apiece. Dvalishvili won every round of their first meeting at a Fight Night in March 2023. Yan got his revenge in their rematch for the bantamweight title at UFC 323 last December, setting up Saturday’s trilogy bout.

Petr Yan is the unanimous staff pick

Jordan Ellis, Donagh Corby, Jamie Theodosi and Kyle Dimond all predict Yan to win by decision. Ellis said he had regarded Yan as one of the sport’s top pound-for-pound fighters for years, including during Yan’s three-fight losing streak. He expects Yan to build on his performance in the rematch.

Corby called the matchup difficult to predict, but pointed to the importance of pace. In his view, Dvalishvili could threaten if he establishes pressure early, while Yan’s chances improve if he controls the fight as it goes on.

Theodosi also highlighted the contrast between the first two contests. He doubts Dvalishvili will change his approach for the third fight, given his established style. Dimond said concerns about Dvalishvili’s injuries made his pick less comfortable, but based his prediction on what happened in the rematch, assuming both fighters are ready.

Dvalishvili’s response is a concern for one predictor

Harvey Leonard also picked Yan by decision, but said the trilogy would otherwise be close to an even call because the first two fights played out so differently. Leonard cited Dvalishvili’s recent admission that he knew he was going to lose at the end of round two in December, after Yan defended his takedowns. That comment raised questions for Leonard about how Dvalishvili might respond if Yan again stops his wrestling.

The five predictions therefore agree on the winner, even as they differ on the finish and the reasons behind their picks. Ellis is the only one expecting a stoppage; the other four see Yan taking the decision.

Yan and Dvalishvili are scheduled to complete their trilogy in the UFC 333 co-main event on Saturday. The card is headlined by a featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev.